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  • Developing Regional Climate Change Scenario and Dilemma in Climate Change Adaptation Planning (2554)

    Long term climate projection at high resolution is fundamental dataset for climate change study, especially assessing impact of climate change at local scale. This future climate projection, which shows future climate of Southeast Asia countries at resolution of 20x20km up to the end of 21st century, is result of dynamic downscaling process using regional climate model from Hadley Centre, The Met Office of United Kingdom, to simulate high-resolution climate data for the region based on dataset from global circulation model ECHAM4 GCM - A2 greenhouse gas emission scenario. Result from regional climate model shows that wide coverage of Southeast Asia region tends to be warmer and duration of warm period will extend substantially in the future, especially in the latter half of the century. Even though, the warming up of temperature is detected for both daily maximum temperature and daily minimum temperature, but daily minimum temperature tends to have higher trend. Precipitation tends to fluctuate in the first half of century but shows increasing trend with higher intensity, which will be clearly seen in latter half of the century where there will be higher precipitation throughout the region. Data from this future climate projection can be used to assist climate change adaptation planning; however, it has to be used in the context of future climate scenario in order to avoid dilemma in planning process.

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